tropical depression/tropical storm flight

[phxflyer]

Hi... I'm flying EWR-IAH-AUS on Saturday morning. I'm pretty concerned about this tropical storm/depression that's forecast to stay in the area over the next few days. What can one expect from a weather pattern like this one?

[Barb-SAN]

While waiting for a response from Capt. Hutch, here are a couple bits of information for you. This is the forecast for the area from www.weather.com (http://www.weather.com):

"In the Gulf of Mexico, Erin has been downgraded to a tropical depression as it moves northwestward inland over the southern coastal Texas. The last advisory has been issued by the National Hurricane Center.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms is increasingly being felt from the Texas Gulf Coast and spreading inland into the central heart of the state. Rainfall will range from 2 to locally 8 inches. The heaviest rain is thankfully, for the most part, avoiding the saturated city of Corpus Christi. In fact, much of south Texas is escaping the heaviest rainfall.
Erin's rainfall will swell streams and rivers like the Nueces River (northwest of Corpus Christi) and Guadalupe River near Bloomington (near Victoria) back into moderate to major flood stages into the weekend. Extreme caution is advised if you live or travel near these rivers."

You may also find it useful to go to www.flightaware.com (http://www.flightaware.com) and look up "airport activity" for the airports of interest, and observe what the planes in the area are doing. From the weather map, it looks like Houston is getting hit hard right now. FlightAware doesn't show any planes arriving or departing from KHOU, presumably due to the weather.

I found that after studying the "airport activity" during numerous weather events around the country over the past year, that I gradually relaxed about the weather issues. I now realize that ATC and the pilots do know what they are doing, and will not fly through thunderstorms. ;) :thumbsup:

I'll be interested to hear what Capt. Hutch has to say about this radar picture.

[aerobat]

I'm in Austin. We are expecting a modicum of rain--hopefully not a lot. So far I've gotten perhaps a quarter inch. The system is expected to be out of the area by Sunday.

You should have nothing to worry about; your pilots will not fly into thunderstorms, and those tend to be less energetic in tropical systems anyway.

Welcome to Austin!! :tiphat:

[Barb-SAN]

Here's some additional information from FlightAware about Houston airport. You can see from the chart that there was about an hour that there were no arrivals or departures from KHOU. Now that the weather system has moved to the NE of the airport, there are once again planes taking off and landing. :thumbsup:

[Barb-SAN]

You can also check the forecast for Austin or any other city you are wondering about at www.weather.com (http://www.weather.com). Here's the link for the 10-day forecast for Austin. http://www.weather.com/outlook/health/fitness/tenday/USTX0057?from=36hr_topnav_fitness

It does look like the weather will be a bit "steamy" in Austin on Saturday with a dewpoint of 75 :eek: ...so no need for that polar fleece jacket....:angel:

[Captain Hutch]

Dear Phxflyer,

Judging from the radar pictures and satellite photos and weather forecasts, the short answer is that you probably will get some rain from the residual effect of Erin on your flight into Houston. Judging from the weather channel information, Hurricane Dean will be far enough away to have any negative effect. However I would be prepared to expect some type of turbulence once your flight is in the area on the approach into the airport. My experience has been that these large systems affect the stability of a larger part of the air mass than for instance the localized effect of a thunderstorm. A couple of years ago I flew over the remnant of a hurricane off the coast of the southeastern US coast. The swirling cloud pattern that you see in the photos was clearly visible but we experienced no turbulence at cruise altitude. Several years ago I flew into an area not long (less than a day) after a hurricane had passed through. There was moderate approaching severe turbulence throughout much of the area. At that time there was no information on the level of turbulence at the low-intermediate altitudes other than pilot reports. I am not sure how much information about turbulence can be obtained from a weather balloon and I have not heard of what the state of technology is now in this area. Ultimately, I think, you will be relying on the information that is passed real time by the pilots in the area to other pilots and the air traffic controllers to guide you through the area. All that being said, the turbulence will probably be light since the system has mostly moved through the area. I am sure that safety will not be compromised, and if the pilot does hear about adverse conditions then he will avoid them.

I would be interested to hear about your flight and what information the pilot passes on to you about the weather. Let us know!

Captain Hutch :)

[Barb-SAN]

A couple of years ago I flew over the remnant of a hurricane off the coast of the southeastern US coast. The swirling cloud pattern that you see in the photos was clearly visible but we experienced no turbulence at cruise altitude. Several years ago I flew into an area not long (less than a day) after a hurricane had passed through. There was moderate approaching severe turbulence throughout much of the area.

At that time there was no information on the level of turbulence at the low-intermediate altitudes other than pilot reports. I am not sure how much information about turbulence can be obtained from a weather balloon and I have not heard of what the state of technology is now in this area. Ultimately, I think, you will be relying on the information that is passed real time by the pilots in the area to other pilots and the air traffic controllers to guide you through the area. All that being said, the turbulence will probably be light since the system has mostly moved through the area. I am sure that safety will not be compromised, and if the pilot does hear about adverse conditions then he will avoid them.
Captain Hutch :)


This is what turbulence information (at 20,000 - 45,000 ft.) is available to the general public on the NOAA website, linked here: http://adds.aviationweather.noaa.gov/turbulence/turb_nav.php. Note that it doesn't show turbulence below 20,000 ft. I was interested to read that you pilots rely on reports from other pilots for the low-intermediate altitude turbulence information.

Indeed, it doesn't look like there is very much turbulence at cruise altitude in the area of what's left of Hurricane Erin.

[Barb-SAN]

Here's the current satellite image over Texas, showing the remnants of Erin.

I put up information about Houston airport yesterday to illustrate airplane movements during a storm, as that was where the "action" was, and it was quiet over Austin at that time. It was a chance to see clearly that planes don't take off or land when there is a thunderstorm directly over the airport. I've already experienced this several times on my flights (either ground delays, or holding patterns in the air, waiting for a thunderstorm to move away from the airport). It's helped me a great deal to study this on Flight Aware, and understand just what is happening.

[phxflyer]

Thanks to everyone for their responses. I'm still pretty nervous about hitting this thing tomorrow, but I'll be sure to post a report to let you know how things went. The good side of things is that I'm flying into IAH on a nice big 767, so that should help to at least moderate some of the bumps... The 737 over to AUS might not handle things as well, but it's normally only 30 minutes or so in the air...

Good luck to me tomorrow! :thumbsup:
Alex

[Barb-SAN]

Good luck to you tomorrow. Any chance of taking some pictures of the clouds from the plane and posting them here after your flight? ;)

[phxflyer]

Hi everyone... Sorry Barb, but didn't have a camera with me this time around. The flights turned out to be totally fine. No real turbulence to speak of anywhere, other than getting pushed around by a few puffy clouds down low in TX. The pilots told me before the flight that the bad weather area was no longer an issue to deal with other than a few very isolated storms. Overall, I worried my butt off for really no reason.

On the positive side, I got upgraded on both of my flights and got to eat a very tasty breakfast on the way from EWR-IAH... :)